The 2017 spring festival began in January 13th and ended in February 21st. It is expected that in 2017, the number of passengers sent during the Spring Festival will reach nearly 3 billion. According to the railway sector is expected, will appear before the Spring Festival passenger flow characteristics is relatively concentrated, the festival is relatively flat this year, the festival is the peak passenger flow will appear in the beginning of six, the sixteen month before and after the peak day passenger volume is expected to exceed 1 million people.
At the same time, the demand for freight is very strong. The last wave of transportation between the Spring Festival and the end of the year has undoubtedly made the transport of chemical fertilizer more busy in recent months. This spring, coal, grain and fertilizer and other key materials transportation demand over the previous few years a significant growth, not only to meet the needs of passenger transport, but also the key material transportation relationship beneficial to the people's livelihood security pressure.
The news pointed out that the pressure of the spring transportation in 2017 was large, one was that the peak of the passenger flow was early, long and peak. Two is the exuberant demand for cargo transportation, and it is difficult to give consideration to the passenger and cargo. Three, the weather conditions are more complex, and the abnormal weather factors are too much. Four, the situation of safety production is severe, and the pressure of the safe operation of the spring transportation is great. Five is the Internet era of the spring transportation work put forward higher requirements.
Stop shipment, transportation tension will continue until March
It is reported that during this winter and spring by the possibility of the La Nina weather events, may occur in northern cold winter, freezing rain may occur in parts of the south, coupled with coal, grain, fertilizer and other key materials transportation demand over the previous few years a significant growth, so the spring pressure may be greater.
In recent years, the news of the stop and stop of Railways has been heard frequently in the agricultural sector, which once caused the panic of chemical transport in the industry. Although the news of railway stop and stop has not been officially confirmed, it also reflects the tension of railway transportation from side to side. See from the news, the railway stop loading time is not long, but many are concentrated in the Spring Festival period, and only appear in the stop loading station, freight station centralized rarely issued notice to stop.
The past two months, around the Railway Bureau has issued to adjust the pricing mechanism of railway freight market price, railway tariff concessions were canceled and chemical fertilizer, coal, grain and other bulk cargo transport seasonal peak arrival let the railway capacity further exacerbated tensions and rapid rail capacity is tight, price rises.
Not only the railway and highway transportation, due to sharp increase in traffic volume, the shipping price is rising, shipping warehouse explosion phenomenon will continue into the first quarter of 2017 forecast. This further increases the cost of fertilizer transportation, which leads to a further increase in the price of fertilizer.
The transport problem in all areas remains prominent. Since the implementation of the most stringent and overloaded order in history, the increase of highway freight rate has led to a large number of goods returning from the road to the railway, and the burden of railway transportation has increased significantly. The arrival of the peak season of seasonal transport of coal and grain and other bulk goods further aggravates the capacity shortage. According to the introduction of potash fertilizer enterprises, at present, including Qinghai and other large areas of potassium fertilizer production, the volume of transportation is far from meeting the demand, and a large number of potash fertilizer is hoarded in the factory area. And the compound fertilizer enterprise in the inland area is more than the raw material, the product is difficult to walk the double-sided attack. The problem of chemical fertilizer transportation in Qinghai may lead to extreme tension in the domestic spring fertilizer use next year.
It is reported that domestic electricity coal transport, grain transport into the seasonal peak, considering the spring transportation and other factors, this wave of transportation tension should continue in March 2017. So after the end of the spring, the volume of coal dropped, the new railway wagon is put into operation, to enhance the capacity of railway. In order to improve the capacity of the road, the new purchase truck is put into operation.
It is tight in spring, and the price is estimated to be about 200 yuan to 500 yuan per ton.
At present, transportation problems cause fertilizer production enterprises not to enter raw materials, products can not be transported, and capacity improvement has become a key factor that can continue to increase prices in the later stage of chemical fertilizer.
The shortage of fertilizer transportation may lead to structural shortage of fertilizer in some areas. If such problems can not be structurally resolved, the peak of fertilizer supply will be in short supply in spring. At present, the main fertilizer areas in China are concentrated in the south, northwest and northeast. They are long-distance transportation. If the capacity problem is not solved for a long time, the production and operation of fertilizer enterprises will be very difficult. In extreme cases, they may be forced to stop production.
Under the background of tight transport coupled with the recent environmental inspection, a few compound fertilizer enterprises have started to decline, and some enterprises are still parking, so the overall operation rate of compound fertilizers has declined. Experts predict that when the spring ploughing is concentrated, the expected increase is about 200 yuan to 500 yuan per ton.
It is worth noting that the price of agricultural products is not improving. The decrease of farmers' income will definitely affect the purchasing power of farmers for agricultural products, and the purchasing power of farmers will have a direct negative effect on the market price of agricultural products.
In the late sales market, the price war of products may start before the advent of the centralized selling period. The price war of various circulation enterprises to seize the market will bring some adverse effects on the latter market.
From the market reaction, the supply tension will occur in both the urea and compound fertilizer in the spring market. Due to rising freight, the cost of raw materials for environmental protection and strengthen the skyrocketing prices of fertilizer has become the norm, rose, rose, phosphate fertilizer urea also rose, is the price of four, fertilizer prices more than hundred yuan per ton is widespread.
According to the current market sales situation and sales price, we will conclude the trend of price rise. The price of market products is unlikely to fall this spring, but there is a possibility of further increase.
Due to the shortage of transportation and the transportation of chemical fertilizers, many chemical fertilizer enterprises have appealed to the railway departments to open "green channel", so that fertilizer and other agricultural supplies can be transported more conveniently, so as to ensure farmers' supply of spring ploughing. (Huang Haiyang)