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What is the impact of rising railway freight rates on spring

时间:2019-08-15 10:44source:未知 author:admin click: second
The shortage of fertilizer transport capacity is difficult to solve in the short term
"Railway price adjustment market has long been anticipated. Railway tariff increase indicates that the marketization of chemical fertilizer as a commodity is becoming more and more obvious. Only when chemical fertilizer is in line with other commodities'tariff can the shipment be smoother and the effective supply be guaranteed. However, from the present point of view, chemical fertilizer still enjoys preferential tariff, so the tariff is higher. The increase can only increase the cost of fertilizer circulation, which will not improve the shortage of transport capacity in the short term. Sun Deliang, general manager of sales company of Shandong Union Chemical Group Co., Ltd., told reporters.
Although the price of chemical fertilizer has risen considerably, it is still lower than other commodities. As an important agricultural asset, chemical fertilizer still enjoys the preferential treatment of railway construction fund of 3.3 cents/ton per kilometer. Li Haofeng, Minister of Strategic Development of Huachang Chemical Industry, Jiangsu Province, said in an interview that the railroad freight rate was raised equally. As a chemical fertilizer with preferential treatment, it was not considered separately, and the increase in freight rate was relatively large, which also showed that the rate of preferential treatment for chemical fertilizer was decreasing. In the process of marketization of railway freight rate, it may be beneficial to relieve the shortage of transport capacity, but the effect is not obvious, because according to the current freight rate, the railway department is still losing money, so the shortage of fertilizer transport capacity is difficult to solve in the short term.
As a special commodity enjoying preferential treatment, chemical fertilizer has been in an embarrassing situation in the transportation process. Because of the strong seasonality, transportation will be affected by the shortage of transportation capacity in the course of transportation every year. For this reason, many chemical fertilizer enterprises to solve transport difficulties, or to change to automobile, or through pulling the relationship, to ask for leather, which has increased costs in a disguised way. From the point of view of the reform and development of railway freight rates, the shortage of fertilizer transport capacity will still exist in the short term.
Increased costs may affect corporate profitability
With the increase of railway freight rate, the transportation cost of chemical fertilizer will increase correspondingly, and the profit of enterprises will be reduced. Sun Deliang said that urea prices have been at a high level, there is little room for future market increases, and the rise in freight prices will reduce the profits of enterprises. He said: "Although urea enterprises can maintain profitable operation, the overall profitability of the industry is still low, and with the increase of freight and labor costs, the profits of enterprises will be significantly compressed. The increase in freight rates seems to increase by only 1.5 cents/ton per kilometre, but the fertilizer industry as a low-profit operation has been. Feel the pressure of survival.
If urea enterprises are relatively dispersed, they can choose road transportation, but as relatively concentrated phosphate fertilizer enterprises, the increase of freight will inevitably affect the normal operation of enterprises.
Ruan Guozhu, marketing Minister of Guizhou Kai-Phosphorus Chemical Fertilizer Co., Ltd., believes that the rise in freight has a greater impact on phosphate fertilizer enterprises. He told reporters: "After the rise in freight rates, transportation from Guizhou to Heilongjiang increased by 60 yuan/ton, from Jilin increased by 50 yuan/ton, and from Xinjiang increased by 70 yuan/ton. The rise of freight directly increases the production cost of enterprises. As ammonium phosphate enterprises are relatively concentrated and two-way transportation, on the one hand, phosphate ore should be transported to factories, and on the other hand, phosphate fertilizer produced should be transported to all parts of the country. The increase of cost undoubtedly has a negative impact on the normal production of enterprises. At present, the production and operation of ammonium phosphate enterprises are basically under the cost line. The increase of freight is undoubtedly worse for enterprises.
Cost support has always been regarded as an important factor in the rising price of chemical fertilizer by the market, but the overall pattern of excess fertilizer production capacity in China remains unchanged. From an economic point of view, supply and demand are the important factors determining prices, so the increase of cost does not mean that prices will rise. Thus, the operation of enterprises will continue. It's bound to get into trouble. And just five days after the rise in electricity prices, domestic oil prices have also risen, which will have a negative impact on the long-term development of enterprises.
In the future, various preferences for chemical fertilizers will be gradually abolished, and the equal increase reflects that the preferential gap between chemical fertilizers and other commodities will not be widened. It is expected that in the next few years, the reform of national electricity, gas and freight prices will be carried out simultaneously, and the preferences enjoyed by chemical fertilizers will be less and less, and the cost will increase. Plus will be the trend.
Spring farming market has limited impact
Although the current freight rate has been raised for nearly a week, the fertilizer market as a whole has been running smoothly, and there has been no significant increase.
Sun Deliang said that although the increase in freight rates correspondingly increased the transport costs of fertilizers. But this has little impact on the spring fertilizer market. He told reporters: "The rise in freight rates is conducive to supporting the stable operation of fertilizer prices. At present, the supply of goods at all levels is relatively sufficient. The cost increase of 20-30 yuan/ton will not have a great impact on the overall market. The spring farming fertilizer market will maintain a steady and slightly upward trend, but this year's winter storage situation is relatively good, so the market will rise in the future. It's limited."
Ruan Guozhu also believes that although the price of diammonium has not yet been priced, the shipment volume basically reaches more than 80%, so the increase of freight has limited impact on spring farming market and will not boost the price of fertilizer. The increase of freight rate is good for stabilizing the market and has a good price effect. But he also stressed that although the spring market impact will not be obvious, it will have a certain impact on the summer and autumn markets, and terminal sales prices will rise.
Li Haofeng believes that the main factor affecting fertilizer prices is the relationship between supply and demand, and that the impact of rising freight rates on spring farming market will not be too great. he
(Responsible Editor:admin)